Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Adaptive Governance: Uncertainty, deal with it -- (Folke et al. 2005)


Crises in social-ecological systems--whether they are natural, such as prolonged periods of extreme drought (see Texas 2011) or of the human produced variety, ie. the “great recession”--when viewed under an adaptive governance lens (see also adaptive co-management), can be seen as an opportunity for societal transformation into a preferred state. 

Of course, upon first thought, this appears to be oxymoronic.  Should crises not be avoided at all costs?  Undoubtedly, it would be preferable to remain in a steady-state of relative equilibrium; who prefers to deal with dramatic change?  However, if the aforementioned examples are any indication, it is best that societies learn to deal with periods of intense uncertainty, or risk further stagnation and possible atrophy. 

The predominant literature on adaptive governance tends to argue that rather than manage our social and natural systems under the assumption that disturbance is bad, we should in fact embrace uncertainty and manage our resources knowing good and well that circumstances will change.  In this light, flexibility and continuous learning are the keys to resilience in an uncertain world. 

But back to crises as opportunities.  Taking the example of the Texas drought above, in a perfect adaptive governance world, we would apply the lessons learned from the drought—and subsequent wildfires--to policies which better regulate our use of water and land management.  These policies could include both increased voluntary incentive based programs as well as mandatory conservation measures in areas particularly vulnerable to limited water or prevent suburban sprawl within fire prone areas.  In essence, the drought could be used as the trigger to transform Texas water governance and planning practices across multiple scales. 

To quote Rahm Emanual, “you never want a serious crises to go to waste.”
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